When can you trust a forecast?

We all consume forecasts -weather forecasts,  political forecasts, forecasts of sporting events, economic forecasts. We also all make forecasts -how will my savings fare in the future?  What will my new job be like? Will I enjoy the holiday I’ve booked in Spain?

Recent events have caused many to question our ability to make accurate forecasts. Few people saw Donald Trump’s election victory in the USA. Most economists didn’t foresee the credit crunch of a decade ago.  The last two UK election results and the Brexit vote shocked  the majority of political experts.

This blog  will look at when we can trust a forecast -whether it’s our own or one made by someone else -and how we can make more reliable predictions.  It will also look at how forecasts influence our decisions and the risks we are prepared to take.

You can read more about this in my book Forewarned: A Sceptic’s Guide to Prediction (Biteback Publications), but the blog will highlight  the latest developments and thinking in the world of prediction and forecasting .

Paul GoodwinForewarned Final cover